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“There are,’’ the Bank of England warns, “more consequences from falling prices than meets the eye.’’What could be so bad about lower prices? It is only now emerging from decades of falling prices that began with the collapse of its property and financial markets in the early 1990s. Mainly because falling prices tend to discourage consumers from spending. Why buy now, after all, if you can purchase what you want — cars, furniture, appliances, vacations — at a lower price later? If consumers were to pull back, en masse, to await lower prices, businesses would face intense pressure to cut prices even more to try to jump-start sales.
Persons: they're, that's, what's, Joe Biden's, ’ ’ Lisa Cook, , United States hasn’t, Tom Krisher Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Bank of England, United, España, Unemployed, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank for International, AP Locations: America, United States, Japan, Spanish, Detroit
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSticky prices in services sector could delay rate cuts, Bank for International Settlements saysAgustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, discusses interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic landscape, commercial real estate and the outlook for banks in 2024.
Persons: Agustín Carstens Organizations: Bank for International
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.
Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan
In 2023, Amtrak revived hopes for the bullet train in the Texas Triangle, when it announced its intention to broaden its partnership with Texas Central. The Texas Central project has been repeatedly delayed as its backers navigate various regulatory hurdles, including environmental reviews and disputes over property rights. The proposed alignment for the Texas high-speed rail project crosses Morney-Berry Farm, which Berry's family has cultivated for generations. And in late 2023, Texas Central received a Corridor ID program grant to study the route's potential for partnership with Amtrak. The backers of Texas Central declined repeated requests from CNBC for a comment on the project's progress and expected completion date.
Persons: Andy Byford, Seth Moulton, Brianne Glover, Jody Berry, Berry, Biden, Troy Nehls Organizations: U.S, Texas Central, Amtrak, Fort Worth metroplex, Texas, Dallas, CNBC, University's Transportation Institute, Texas Supreme Court, Reason, U.S ., Japan Bank, International Cooperation, Speed Rail Authority Locations: Texas, Dallas, Houston, U.S, It's, Berry, Japan, California, Los Angeles, San Francisco
REUTERS/Steve Marcus/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Digital bank robberies and other cyber hacks will be a key risk for countries launching digital versions of their currencies, a new report from the Bank for International Settlements has warned. The BIS, dubbed the central bankers' central bank, has been overseeing much of the global development work on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and its report is its most comprehensive assessment yet of the challenges. A worst case scenario though would be a cyber hack that saw money stolen from what would effectively be a central bank's digital vault. "Cyber security is a key risk for CBDCs," the report published on Wednesday said, adding they would have "far-reaching implications" for the way central banks currently operate. China is trialling a prototype digital yuan with 200 million users, while the European Central Bank has just begun two years of advanced-stage exploratory work.
Persons: Steve Marcus, Marc Jones, Christina Fincher Organizations: Def Con, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, CBDCs, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, Bahamas, Nigeria, China
IMF, World Bank and BIS in first 'tokenisation' collaboration
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Cecilia Skingsley attends a session on central bank digital currencies at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, U.S., October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Three of the world's cornerstone institutions - the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Bank for International Settlements - are to work together for the first time to "tokenise" some of the financial instruments that underpin their global work, a BIS official said on Tuesday. The trio will also work with Switzerland's central bank which has been pioneering tokenisation, the process of turning conventional assets into uniquely coded "tokens" that can be used in faster new systems. Their collaboration will initially focus on simple but still paper-based processes such as when richer countries donate into some of the World Bank's funds to support poorer parts of the world. She also touched on the new breed of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), repeating calls for some global rules and technology standards so they can work across the world and with existing payment systems.
Persons: Cecilia Skingsley, Elizabeth Frantz, Skingsley, Marc Jones, Matthew Lewis Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, Atlantic Council, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, London
A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Volatility across major asset classes is low - implied volatility on Wall Street is at its lowest in almost four years, global currency implied vol is the lowest since early last year, and U.S. bond vol is at a two-month low. China's markets, especially, have lagged, although Japanese stocks have outperformed thanks to the weak yen and a historic loosening of wider financial conditions. The Aussie on Monday rose above $0.66 for the first time since Aug. 10 and was one of the biggest winners among major currencies along with the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.
Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Bullock's, Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank for International, New Zealand, Bank of, RBA, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, Australia
The future of interest rates is more surprises
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.
Persons: Claudio Borio, , , Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan
SINGAPORE — Central bank digital currencies have the potential to replace cash, but adoption could take time, said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday. "CBDCs can replace cash which is costly to distribute in island economies," she said Wednesday at the Singapore FinTech Festival. CBDCs are the digital form of a country's fiat currency, which are regulated by the country's central bank. They are powered by blockchain technology, allowing central banks to channel government payments directly to households. Several central banks have already launched pilots or even issued a CBDC," the IMF said in a September report.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Singapore FinTech, Bank for International, Atlantic Council Locations: SINGAPORE — Central, Singapore
Hong Kong finance summit tiptoes around China
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
HONG KONG, Nov 9 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong in November enjoys a pleasant climate that some local managers dub “chairman weather”. Hong Kong is hardly a hot destination for financiers right now. Companies raised just $2.7 billion from initial public offerings in Hong Kong in the quarter, a fraction of previous years. Hong Kong officials including John Lee, the territory’s chief executive, have been sanctioned by the U.S.. Follow @peter_tl on XCONTEXT NEWSThe Global Financial Leaders’ Summit was held in Hong Kong from Nov. 6 to Nov. 8.
Persons: Marc Rowan, Colm Kelleher, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Jane Fraser, Ken Griffin, Hong, John Lee, Eddie Yue, Kung, Zhang Qingsong, Bob Prince, Mark Wiedman, Apollo’s Rowan, UBS’s Kelleher, Joseph Yam, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Apollo Global Management, UBS, Monetary Fund, Companies, Citigroup, Citadel, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong’s HK, Exchange, People’s Bank of China, Bridgewater Associates, BlackRock, Goldman, Bank for International, Global, , Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, Europe, U.S, China . Hong Kong, China, People’s Republic, Hong, British, Singapore, BLK.N,
High bond yields challenge “Pax Americana”
  + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
There are also many reasons why “Pax Americana” – the period of U.S. dominance since World War Two - is under stress. The combination of high bond yields with a large fiscal deficit and rising sovereign debt is making it harder for politicians to govern the country. If anything, they may have a tougher job to make their fiscal maths add up than the United States because their growth prospects are not as rosy. What’s more, the near-record yield gap with the United States is bringing its own headaches by putting downward pressure on the yuan. These are consolations for the United States as it grapples with the geopolitical consequences of high interest rates.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden’s, doesn’t, Liz Truss, haven’t, Paul Tucker, , Fitch, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Air Force, Joint Base Andrews, REUTERS, Reuters, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank of England, AAA, AA, United, Bank for International, Initiative, Thomson Locations: Lewiston , Maine, Joint Base Andrews , Maryland, U.S, Israel, Ukraine, China, United States, Europe, Asia, Russia, Britain, Washington, Republic
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Leveraged funds trading U.S. Treasuries futures have increased their record net short position across the curve, which will do little to soothe growing concerns among regulators about the potential financial stability risks these bets pose. That is significantly larger than the peak combined net short position from 2019 of just over 4 million contracts. That's a whisker from the two-year record net short of 1.558 million contracts in 2019, and a fresh record five-year net short. A short position is essentially a wager an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. But funds play Treasuries futures for other reasons, like relative value trades, and this year, the basis trade.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Miral Organizations: Bank for International, Futures Trading Commission, U.S, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s real estate market is in decline. The trouble is that China’s economic imbalances are far worse than Japan’s in 1990. Yet China’s GDP per capita has reached only half of Japan’s level in 1990. China’s economic misdirection is catalogued in Yasheng Huang’s “The Rise and Fall of the East”. After 1978 the authorities gave provincial governments substantial freedom to promote economic growth and rewarded them for meeting a growth target.
Persons: Xi, Xi Jinping, Huang, , Xi’s, Beijing’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Monetary Fund, South, Asian, IMF, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank for International, MIT Sloan School of Management, HK, Communist, Huawei, Washington, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, People’s Republic, China, South Korea, Japan, deflate, Tokyo, California, Beijing, Taiwan, Communist
India and Japan will be Asia's next power couple
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Pranav Kiran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. Evan Vucci/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Oct 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - India and Japan are edging closer. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's governments form part of the so-called Quad security grouping with the United States and Australia to counter Chinese expansionism in Asia. Now the two countries are setting up an investment fund together. That’s delivering on a pledge by Kishida to invest 5 trillion yen, or some $42 billion, into India over the next five years.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Fumio Kishida, Evan Vucci, Fumio, Kishida, Wood Mackenzie, Sajjan Jindal, India’s, Lakshmi Mittal, JBIC, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Indian, Japan, Bharat, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Reuters, National Investment, Infrastructure Fund, Japan Bank, International Cooperation, Japan External Trade Organization, Nippon Telegraph, Telephone, Reuters Graphics, Teck Resources, Nippon Steel, ArcelorMittal, Japan Fund, Thomson Locations: New Delhi, India, Japan, United States, Australia, Asia, Reuters Graphics India, China, Russia, South, Teck, Indian
A number of Caribbean countries and Nigeria have already launched digital currencies while China and Sweden are among those that have rolled out pilot projects. The ECB says a digital euro will create competition in the market for payments, dominated by U.S. credit card companies. The digital euro will distributed by the ECB as well as commercial banks and digital wallet providers. Many of these projects surged around 2019, when Facebook announced plans to introduce a digital currency, which were then ditched. But the rise of stablecoins – crypto tokens backed to some degree by traditional currencies – gave central bank’s digital currencies, or CBDC in financial jargon, new impetus.
Persons: Markus Ferber, Francesco Canepa, Alex Richardson, Deborah Kyvrikosaios Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, European People's Party, U.S, Monetary Fund, Commission, Bank for International, Facebook, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Nigeria, China, Sweden
High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech
High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech
"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez
DALLAS, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens on Sunday said it's "too early to say" how the newly erupted conflict in Israel will affect the global economy still struggling with post-pandemic high inflation. "Traditionally this affects the price of oil and can affect the stock market, but it’s too early to say," Carstens told the National Association for Business Economics in answer to a question after a talk in which he emphasized the need for central banks to keep interest rates relatively high "for a while" to beat inflation. "We need to continue being very firm." Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Agustin Carstens, it's, Carstens, Ann Saphir, Diane Craft Organizations: DALLAS, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Israel
LONDON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - A global central bank test lab has designed a prototype bitcoin monitoring system aimed at giving authorities a clearer picture on how, when and where the cryptocurrency is used. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) project, codenamed Atlas, began at the Dutch central bank more than five years ago, but its potential value has been underscored over the last 18 months by a series of chaotic collapses across the crypto industry. Cross-border crypto flows are particularly relevant for central banks in the context of cross-border payments, economic analysis and balance of payments statistics, the BIS said. "Central banks need to gain first-hand knowledge of crypto and DeFi and the risks and opportunities they present to the financial system," the BIS said. It added the dashboards would now be made available to a group of "test" central banks to gather feedback and for further development.
Persons: Atlas, Elizabeth Howcroft, Gareth Jones Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, Atlas, BIS, Regulators, Thomson Locations: London
A logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows. Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned neutral from bullish on stocks, the UBS note said. This will be the first time these hedge funds will be net short equity markets since November 2022, the bank said. The size of the U.S. stock market is estimated to be $46.2 trillion, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Persons: Denis Balibouse, CTAs, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: Swiss, UBS, REUTERS, Reuters, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Currency, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, U.S
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Hedge fund Eisler Capital posted a 4.17% positive performance for the year to end-August, it said in a letter to investors, benefiting from a basis-trade strategy that has regulators worried about financial stability risks. According to the letter seen by Reuters, basis trades have been a part of the most profitable trading strategy for the $3.7 billion London-based hedge fund this year. While the fund uses basis trades in U.S. Treasuries, it also employs them with the euro, Swiss franc and Swedish government bonds, the letter showed. A Fed paper on Aug. 30 said that if these positions represent the so-called basis trades, "sustained large exposures by hedge funds present a financial stability vulnerability" warranting "diligent monitoring." The Eisler investor letter also showed the hedge fund uses swap derivatives to mitigate the riskiness of its positions.
Persons: Eisler, Kevin Lenaghan, Nell Mackenzie, David Holmes Organizations: Eisler, Reuters, Swiss, Bank for International, Ivy Academy, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Europe
Agustin Carstens leaves after G-20 finance ministers and central banks governors family photo during the IMF/World Bank spring meeting in Washington, U.S., April 20, 2018. His warning comes as central banks around the world push ahead with central bank digital currency (CBDC) development in a bid to make money more high tech and keep up with the features now offered by cryptocurrencies. Some 11 countries have already launched them and next month the European Central Bank is expected to receive the green light to start work on a digital euro. Carstens, whose organisation is overseeing much of the global test work, said central banks have a mandate to meet public demands and have also made significant investments into CBDCs. "It is simply unacceptable that unclear or outdated legal frameworks could hinder their deployment," added Carstens, the former governor of the Mexico's central bank.
Persons: Agustin Carstens, Yuri Gripas, Marc Jones, Josie Kao Organizations: IMF, Bank, REUTERS, Bank for International, BIS, cryptocurrencies, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
The global Basel Committee agreed additional capital rules in 2017 that require banks to hold bigger reserves to shield them from potential shocks. The EU, along with Britain and the United States, is now putting the final Basel requirements into its rule books. Basel has a 2028 deadline for implementing its remaining rules, which are set to be rolled out in the EU from January 2025. The BoE is due to set out its final Basel Endgame rules sometime in 2024. The aggregate shortfalls globally and in the EU represent a fraction of banks' total capital buffers and earnings.
Persons: Arnd, BoE, Huw Jones, Jacqueline Wong, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, REUTERS, Union, Basel, European Banking Authority, Basel III, United, Bank of England, EU, Committee, Thomson Locations: Basel, Switzerland, EU, Britain, United States, Banks
NICKELS & STEAMROLLEREstimating the size of hedge funds' basis trade bets is difficult because transparency and visibility around hedge funds is so low at the best of times, especially with regard to their more complex activities and strategies. Many analysts look at leveraged funds' position in Treasuries futures, and the Aug. 30 Fed paper also noted speculators' repo borrowings. This is a fairly reliable sign of basis trade activity, the Aug. 30 Fed paper says. Overnight repo rates have steadily tracked the fed funds policy rate since March 2022. Basis trade liquidation, as funds got squeezed out of their positions through margin and collateral calls as volatility rocketed, likely contributed to that dislocation.
Persons: Steven Zeng, Christoph Schon, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Fed, Bank for International, Deutsche Bank, STEAMROLLER, Futures, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
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